Google Zero and other “Unthinkables” with Dirk Songuer

In futures research, we often classify uncertainties into “known unknowns” and “unknowables.” But there’s another category I find fascinating: the “unthinkables.”

These are things we usually ignore because they seem too improbable—like an asteroid hitting your headquarters. But within those, there are scenarios that become gradually more probable, and yet we still ignore them. Sometimes that’s due to complacency—“it’s always been like this, so we don’t have to worry”—and sometimes it’s because of cultural or personal biases.

The challenge is that we’re entering an age where many of these “unthinkables” are not so unthinkable anymore. They’re becoming very real scenarios we need to consider.

Take the web’s reliance on advertising. For years, it seemed unthinkable that the internet could run on anything else. But that assumption is breaking down.

Google is under monopoly scrutiny. Apple has been forced to open the App Store. And some theorists—like Neelay Patel with his “Google Zero” concept—have long warned about a future where publishers can’t rely on Google to send them traffic.

What was once “unthinkable” is now a scenario every service provider and agency should actively consider: what happens when the web’s entire business model changes?

If you start thinking in “unthinkable” terms, you start finding opportunities. For MSPs, that might mean exploring privacy and sovereignty as selling points.

Ten years ago, it was unthinkable that European customers would question US-hosted Cloud services. Now, sovereignty and data locality are becoming strategic factors, not just technical ones.

We may even be heading toward a post-hyperscaler world. Instead of everything flowing through a handful of global giants, we might see “middle-scalers”—localized, sovereign, specialized providers serving targeted niches.

That opens the door for MSPs to build unique value propositions around culture, compliance, and trust.

Technology always moves in cycles. We go to the Cloud, then pull workloads back on-premises. We centralize, then decentralize.

What’s different today is the split: on one side, you have hyper-private workloads that must remain in-house; on the other, hyper-scalable cloud resources that demand decentralization.

This duality creates a fascinating space for MSPs and IT providers. It’s not about choosing one model—it’s about designing services that navigate both extremes and help customers manage complexity.

AI is less a technology than a narrative. Since the 1950s, it has inspired strong visions, often far beyond what the tools could actually deliver. Today’s LLMs are still automation at their core—but the narrative forces us to ask important questions.

What happens when decisions are automated? What happens if workforces are largely automated? These questions lead to societal discussions—about universal basic income, healthcare, and the distribution of value in society.

So AI has two tracks: one is tactical—what can this tool do for us today? The other is strategic—what unthinkable scenarios does it open up for society and business? Both are relevant, but we shouldn’t confuse them.

Start by challenging your assumptions. Every company has them—statements embedded in quarterly plans or annual strategies that go unquestioned. “This cost will always be fixed.” “This process will always be manual.” “This market will always work this way.”

But we’re in a moment where many of those assumptions no longer hold. Laying them out on the table, questioning them in good faith, and asking “what if this changed?”—that exercise can uncover new opportunities and help you prepare for disruptive scenarios.

I’ll be exploring how to recognize unthinkables in your own business environment, how to incorporate them into scenario planning, and how to turn them into opportunities rather than threats.

It’s about giving people a framework to spot overlooked factors—positive and negative—that could reshape their business.

And it’s about sparking conversations with peers about where the next opportunities might lie.